顾及地类转换差异的城市空间扩展元胞自动机模型及应用研究

元胞自动机模型已经成为城市空间扩展模拟研究的重要方法之一,并得到广泛应用。然而,现有的城市扩展元胞自动机模型仍存在不足。由于元胞状态设置较为简单,从而使模型转换规则中对不同用地类型向城市用地转换的差异与强度考虑不够。基于此本文在元胞自动机模型的框架下,设计了多元结构的元胞状态及转换规则,提出了顾及地类转换差异与强度的城市扩展元胞自动机模型。在计算非城市用地向城市用地转换的转换概率时,该模型考虑了3个方面的概率：① 地形地貌、经济发展等城市发展的驱动因素对城市用地扩展的影响概率,该概率采用logistics方法进行计算;② 邻域元胞的用地类型对中心元胞转换概率的影响,该概率采用扩展摩尔型方法进行计算;③ 不同类型的非城市用地（本研究中包括耕地、林地和裸地3种类型）向城市用地转换的强度,该概率由模拟基期土地利用数据与目标年份土地利用数据的叠加,得出不同类型的非城市用地在此时间段内向城市用地转换的规模,进而确定不同类型的非城市用地向城市用地转换的强度。最后,将以上3种概率的乘积作为元胞转换的概率。通过转换概率与转换阈值的对比判断中心元胞是否在下一个阶段转换为城市用地。经过迭代计算,不断增加城市用地元胞的数量。当模拟城市用地的结果与目标年份的城市用地规模差值在一定的范围内时停止模拟,得出最终结果。模型构建完成后,本文以长株潭城市群核心区为例进行了模拟实验。以2001年该地区的土地利用数据为基期数据,模拟2010年该地区的城市用地规模和空间分布。研究结果表明,根据本文提出的模型模拟的城市扩展结果与真实数据相比具有较高的一致性。模拟结果正确率达到68.66%,比基于传统logistics回归的元胞自动机模型的模拟精度提高了4.25%,Kappa系数为0.675。该模型较好地模拟了长株潭城市群核心区城市扩展,在城市空间扩展模拟中具有较好的适应性与有效性。     

弧形海岸裂流的数值模拟研究

弧形海岸波浪产生的裂流严重危害人类活动，但是目前对其特征缺乏充分认识。本文对Haller物理模型实验和三亚大东海的数值模拟表明FUNWAVE模式具有较好的裂流模拟能力。基于该模式进行了多种弧形海岸条件的裂流数值模拟，给出裂流的一些特征：（1）海岸弯曲度增大，裂流增强；（2）海岸坡度对裂流有比较大的影响，太陡或太平缓的海岸不利于形成裂流；（3）海岸尺寸减小，裂流减弱；（4）波高和波周期增大，裂流增强，但是对于某些海岸而言，0.4m波高可能就存在危害比较大的裂流。     

Study of the flood control scheduling scheme for the Three Gorges Reservoir in a catastrophic flood

The Three Gorges Project is the world's largest water conservancy project. According to the design standards for the 1,000‐year flood, flood diversion areas in the Jingjiang reach of the Yangtze River must be utilized to ensure the safety of the Jingjiang area and the city of Wuhan. However, once these areas are used, the economic and life loss in these areas may be very great. Therefore, it is vital to reduce this loss by developing a scheme that reduces the use of the flood diversion areas through flood regulation by the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), under the premise of ensuring the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. For a 1,000‐year flood on the basis of a highly destructive flood in 1954, this paper evaluates scheduling schemes in which flood diversion areas are or are not used. The schemes are simulated based on 2.5‐m resolution reservoir topography and an optimized model of dynamic capacity flood regulation. The simulation results show the following. (a) In accord with the normal flood‐control regulation discharge, the maximum water level above the dam should be not more than 175 m, which ensures the safety of the dam and reservoir area. However, it is necessary to utilize the flood diversion areas within the Jingjiang area, and flood discharge can reach 2.81 billion m³. (b) In the case of relying on the TGR to impound floodwaters independently rather than using the flood diversion areas, the maximum water level above the dam reaches 177.35 m, which is less than the flood check level of 180.4 m to ensure the safety of the Three Gorges Dam. The average increase of the TGR water level in the Chongqing area is not more than 0.11 m, which indicates no significant effect on the upstream reservoir area. Comparing the various scheduling schemes, when the flood diversion areas are not used, it is believed that the TGR can execute safe flood control for a 1,000‐year flood, thereby greatly reducing flood damage.     

典型深街谷内树木空间配置对行人呼吸高度处气流的影响

为揭示树木的不同空间配植方案对行人呼吸高度气流的影响,本文将树木视为均匀多孔介质,通过附加源项法从空气动力学角度用CFD模拟了H/W=2的典型深街谷几何内4种树木配植情景,实验表明,不同空间配置下树木对街谷内行人呼吸高度处局地气流的影响强弱在空间分布模式上差异悬殊：① 均匀种植的树木对街谷内行人呼吸高度的气流起到阻碍作用,不均匀种植则有效提升街谷的整体流速。4种空间配植方案下树木对气流的影响程度不同,阻碍作用从大到小的顺序为均匀间距8 m（Spa8m）>均匀间距6 m（Spa6m）>均匀间距20 m（Spa20m）>不均匀配植（Non-uniform）;对应的平均气流增强指标顺序为$\bar{D}_{spa8}$（-19.31%）<$\bar{D}_{spa6}$（-16.14%）<$\bar{D}_{spa20}$（-10.73%）<$\bar{D}_{non-uniform}$（1.25%）。② 对比不均匀和均匀的种植方案,不均匀植树的街谷内部行人呼吸高度的气流流速比其对照案例（均匀植树Spa8m方案）整体增强了106.49%。街谷中部不种树,在街谷两端配置树木并预留足够的自由空间的不均匀植树方案,能够让角涡渗入街谷中部,促使街谷内部的垂直漩涡和两端的水平角涡运动,增强湍流和垂直交换,有效减少了街道两端“风口效应”和街道中部“风影效应”的区域,改善了整个街谷行人呼吸平面的风环境。④ 合理空间配置的树木能够改善街谷内部的行人风环境。街谷内行人呼吸高度处的气流对局地条件很敏感,树木的局部配置（空间簇集、密度）将引起强烈的空间变化。在既有城市建筑布局条件下,如何通过谨慎的景观设计,利用树木等城市绿化措施有效地改善城市的行人风环境,缓解污染扩散、疾病传播等问题,本文的方法可提供一定的参考。     

Bearing capacity of offshore umbrella suction anchor foundation in silty soil under varying loading modes

Considering the current disadvantages of present offshore wind turbine foundations, a novel anchor foundation with skirt and branches is proposed, called offshore umbrella suction anchor foundation (USAF). A series of experiments and numerical simulations were performed to explore the bearing capacity of the USAF under various kinds of loading modes. The bearing characteristics and the anchor–soil interactions are described in detail for horizontal static loading, horizontal cyclic loading, and an antidrawing (pullout) test in silty soil. In the static loading test, the load–deflection of the anchor under step loading was analyzed and the normalized curve of the load–deflection was obtained to determine the ultimate horizontal bearing capacity of the anchor under normal working conditions. Under horizontal cyclic loading, the relationship between the plastic cumulative deformation and cyclic number was determined. In addition, the responses of USAF were investigated for a low wave frequency and storm surges. In the drawing test, it was found that a “segmentation phenomenon” occurred during the test. Moreover, a method to identify the maximum antidrawing load of USAF was provided based on dynamic mechanics. The numerical results show that the use of anchor branches and skirt can enhance the bearing performance of USAF to a certain degree. However, the anchor branch has a slight positive influence on the bearing performance improvement. The USAF is not only similar to a stiff short pile, but a rotation occurs. The failure envelope under composite loading (V-M) was obtained and the changes associated with changes in the aspect ratio of the internal compartment were clarified.     

Developing constitutive models from EPR‐based self‐learning finite element analysis

A constitutive model that captures the material behavior under a wide range of loading conditions is essential for simulating complex boundary value problems. In recent years, some attempts have been made to develop constitutive models for finite element analysis using self‐learning simulation (SelfSim). Self‐learning simulation is an inverse analysis technique that extracts material behavior from some boundary measurements (eg, load and displacement). In the heart of the self‐learning framework is a neural network which is used to train and develop a constitutive model that represents the material behavior. It is generally known that neural networks suffer from a number of drawbacks. This paper utilizes evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR) in the framework of SelfSim within an automation process which is coded in Matlab environment. EPR is a hybrid data mining technique that uses a combination of a genetic algorithm and the least square method to search for mathematical equations to represent the behavior of a system. Two strategies of material modeling have been considered in the SelfSim‐based finite element analysis. These include a total stress‐strain strategy applied to analysis of a truss structure using synthetic measurement data and an incremental stress‐strain strategy applied to simulation of triaxial tests using experimental data. The results show that effective and accurate constitutive models can be developed from the proposed EPR‐based self‐learning finite element method. The EPR‐based self‐learning FEM can provide accurate predictions to engineering problems. The main advantages of using EPR over neural network are highlighted.     

察尔汗盐湖西北部典型采区地下卤水赋存状态的地面核磁探测与数值模拟研究

察尔汗盐湖地下晶间卤水蕴藏了宝贵的盐湖矿产资源,如何确定地下卤水的赋存规律以制定科学合理的卤水开采和补给方案,正成为盐湖资源大规模可持续利用亟需解决的重要问题。本文以察尔汗盐湖西北部的典型采卤区作为研究区域,1)利用新型的地面核磁共振找水仪,通过在研究区布设两条十字交叉的测线,探测并反演解译测区地下60米深度内的卤水静态赋存形式,2)结合OpenGeoSys(OGS)多物理场耦合地下水数值模拟软件,对测区地下卤水的动态运移形式进行数值模拟计算。地面核磁探测结果表明研究区含水量整体偏低,最大含水量约0.8%,平均含水量约0.4%。测点结果给出的含水层位分界面与邻近钻孔的地层层位分界面的一致性较高,浅部的层位误差在10%以下,达到了0.5米的精度。考虑到测区南北两边均有采卤渠正在汲取地下卤水,且在测区中心存在两条废弃的采卤渠,OGS地下水数值模拟研究结果表明采卤渠造成测区浅部卤水较大空缺,与研究区浅部含水量总体偏低的探测特征一致。研究结果表明地面核磁共振技术能准确探测卤水当前的赋存状态,地下水运移模拟技术可以深入认识采补活动引起卤水赋存状态的变化规律。探测和模拟结合的联合研究是确定卤水赋存规律的重要手段,研究成果可为盐湖资源合理开采高效利用提供基础资料和相关科学支撑。     

城镇化与生态环境耦合的动态模拟——研究进展与展望

Urbanization and eco-environment coupling is a research hotspot.Dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling needs to be improved because the processes of coupling are complex and statistical methods are limited.Systems science and cross-scale coupling allow us to define the coupled urbanization and eco-environment system as an open complex giant system with multiple feedback loops.We review the current state of dynamic simulation of urbanization and eco-environment coupling and find that:(1)The use of dynamic simulation is an increasing trend,the relevant theory is being developed,and modeling processes are being improved;(2)Dynamic simulation technology has become diversified,refined,intelligent and integrated;(3)Simulation is mainly performed for three aspects of the coupling,multiple regions and multiple elements,local coupling and telecoupling,and regional synergy.However,we also found some shortcomings:(1)Basic theories are inadequately developed and insufficiently integrated;(2)The methods of unifying systems and sharing data are behind the times;(3)Coupling relations and the dynamic characteristics of the main driving elements are not fully understood or completely identified.Additionally,simulation of telecoupling does not quantify parameters and is not systemically unified,and therefore cannot be used to represent spatial synergy.In the future,we must promote communication between research networks,technology integration and data sharing to identify the processes governing change in coupled relations and in the main driving elements in urban agglomerations.Finally,we must build decision support systems to plan and ensure regional sustainable urbanization.     

长江上游洪涝暴雨环流形势中期演变趋势分析

本文通过对1980年以来长江上游10次洪涝过程的500hpa环流形势分析,并用车比雪夫多项式对500hpa高度场进行展开,研究了各类洪涝过程的中期演变特征,发现代表不同洪涝过程环流形势变化的不同的车氏系数值都有明显的特征变化,结合欧洲中心中期数值预告96小时500hpa高度场的车氏系数分析,可为洪涝暴雨的中期预报提供一种新的思路。     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.